Global population to soar to 11 billion by 2100 as African population quadruples
- Projection is 800 million more than a previous UN forecast of 10.1 billion
The world’s population will reach almost eleven billion by the end of the century because of soaring birth rates in Africa, according to new research.
The latest projection is about 800 million – eight percent – more than a previous UN forecast of 10.1 billion issued in 2011.
Researchers had expected fertility on the poorest continent where a woman will give birth to an average of 5.2 children in her lifetime, to fall more quickly than it has.
Professor Adrian Raftery, of the University of Washington, said: ‘The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up.’
A study last year found shifting population trends mean one in three children born by 2050 will be African.
The UN gives high and low variants of its projections, assuming women have an average of half a child more or less than the best projection. That leaves a large uncertainty, from 7 billion to nearly 17 billion, in the range for potential world population.
‘Our probability intervals are much tighter, ranging from 9 billion to 13 billion in 2100,’ added Prof Raftery.
The global population reached 7 billion in 2011, having passed 6 billion in 1999.
Regardless of what issue is foremost in your concern, nothing can be done about anyone of them unless we manage to end population growth!